Quail Forecast

It’s been a while since Texas quail hunters have had much to crow about. Barring a few modest upticks, quail populations have pretty much been in the dumps for years.

Experts point to everything from habitat loss/ fragmentation, prolonged drought, predation and parasites as the causes for the puzzling decline, and millions of dollars raised by special interest groups like the Quail Coalition out of Dallas have been spent on research projects aimed in hopes of finding solutions to help reverse it.

Texas has four species of quail — northern bobwhites, scaled quail, Gambel's quail and Montezuma quail. Bobwhites are the most common, but way less abundant now than they once were.

Quail are dapper little dudes that are resilient in nature. The ground-nesting birds have a long history of boom and bust cycles.

Numbers are prone to jump in years with timely rainfall to spur adequate cover for spring and summer nesting that ultimately leads to good chick survival. Noticeable spikes may follow when banner nesting conditions result in significant hatches for consecutive years.

Conversely, the road to recovery on the heels of a widespread crash can be a long one. It could take years.

The Texas Parks and Wildlife Department recently released its quail forecast ahead of the 202324 hunting season, which runs Oct. 28 through Feb. 25. The annual outlook is certainly nothing to write home about, but it does indicate some bright spots that are reason for quail junkies to be cautiously optimistic about the future.

That’s the word from John McLaughlin, TPWD’s upland game bird program leader. Based in Lubbock, McLaughlin says the forecast is based largely on the results of roadside surveys that are conducted in designated ecological regions each August. Ecological regions included are the Cross Timbers, Edwards Plateau, Gulf Coast Prairies, High Plains, Rolling Plains and South Texas Plains.

TPWD staff carry out surveys by driving 20-mile survey lines and counting quail they see along the way. Biologists record the number of singles, pairs, coveys, and number of quail within coveys for each quail species by one-mile increments. The surveys allow for comparisons between current year data and the 15-year average recorded for each ecological region.

Not surprisingly, conducting the annual survey is a time-consuming task. It involves dozens of wildlife biologists and technicians driving more 3,300 road miles over a two-week period.

This year’s survey indicates the most significant gains occurred in South Texas and the Gulf Coast Prairies, where early spring rains resulted in good nesting conditions before a nasty, summer-long drought set in.

“South Texas stands out for sure,” McLaughlin said. “The region had good carry over of birds from last year. Our numbers indicate there were incremental gains across most of the other ecological regions, but they were just that — incremental. They weren’t a big jump, but I still feel pretty good about it. I think we would have seen bigger gains if it hadn’t turned so dry, but for the conditions and the cover we grew I’m optimistic that we put some birds on the ground this year. We haven’t seen that in quite a few years.”

Here’s a synopsis the TPWD’S 2023-24 bobwhite quail season forecast by ecological region:

CROSS TIMBER

* The Numbers: The average number of bobwhites tallied per route was 0.20 compared to 0.23 in 2022. The count was below the 15-year average of 1.38 and a continuation of recent trends.

* Regional Outlook: Habitat conditions were good to excellent in spring but diminished in quality in summer, limiting late season nesting activity. Biologists reported good for production and insect populations as well as an increase in native warm season grasses. Summer heat combined with fewer hens available for dampened reproductive output. Bobwhites are present in most counties, but populations persist at low densities making birds difficult to find. McLaughlin says long term habitat improvements bode well for birds, but quality hunting opportunities are likely to be limited to small, isolated pockets this season.

* Hunting Outlook: Poor to below average.

EDWARDS PLATEAU * The Numbers: The average number of bobwhites per route was 1.00 compared to 0.11 in 2022, but still less than the 15-year average of 2.78.

* Regional Outlook: Spring rainfall produced abundant cover for rearing broods along with a flush of insects, but the favorable habitat conditions slowly diminished with the arrival of summer. McLauglin says reduced population numbers in past years have resulted in fewer hens being available for nesting, which naturally reduces reproductive output. The region has capacity to produce good quail numbers, but populations have been depressed for several years. While the survey indicates an increase, McLaughlin believes the numbers were heavily influenced by a single route in Kinney County. Hunters can expect scattered pockets of good hunting for bobwhites.

* Hunting Outlook: Below average to fair.

GULF COAST PRAIRIES * The Numbers: The average number of bobwhites per route was 9.60 compared to 2.50 in 2022, topping the 15-year mean of 7.81.

* Regional Outlook: Cool, moist conditions in spring brought a flush of beneficial nesting cover to coastal counties. Early concerns of too much moisture for nesting quail were erased as conditions dried out in the early summer months and left the habitat in near optimal shape. That’s when the heat wave set in and drought conditions took hold. McLaughlin says bobwhite numbers exceeded expectations despite the summer heat, resulting in the best survey results since 2015. Birds were abundant and widely distributed across Calhoun, Matagorda, Victoria and Wharton counties, indicating that the wet-dry cycle was beneficial along the coast. Young broods were observed in September. While bobwhite populations are not robust, and drought threatens progress in the short-term, Mc-Laughlin says hunters can expect fair to good hunting opportunities this season.

* Hunting Outlook: Fair, locally above average.

HIGH PLAINS

* The Numbers: The average number of bobwhites per route was 3.44 compared to 0.78 in 2022, well below the 15-year average of 6.29.

* Regional Outlook: McLaughlin says spring rainfall north and south of I-40 resulted in quality ground cover before drying out over the summer. Residual cover was still available in many counties entering fall. Bird pairs were observed early and often, but brood sightings were few throughout summer. McLaughlin is certain the region produced birds, but believes it was only a modest bump. He added that the increased survey numbers were heavily weighted by a single route in Bailey County.

* Hunting Outlook: Below average to fair.

ROLLING PLAINS

* The Numbers: Average number of bobwhites was 3.43 per route compared to 0.86 in 2022 and well below the 15-year average of 11.09.

* Regional Outlook: Springtime habitat conditions were good to excellent, but diminished in quality with the summer heat. McLaughlin says areas along the Canadian River watershed and core countries benefited from good spring rainfall from May through June, spurring good ground cover for nesting birds. Biologists noted early nesting activity in Fisher County, but it was slow to pick up elsewhere. Despite fewer hens being available for nesting, survey numbers and field reports reflected a bump in many counties. Hunters can expect scattered pockets of good hunting, especially in the northern and western portions.

* Hunting Outlook: Below average to fair.

SOUTH TEXAS

* The Numbers: The average number of bobwhites seen per route was 9.59 compared to 5.26 in 2022, up from the 15-year average of 9.21. The results mark the continuation of a positive trend.

* Regional Outlook: Excellent spring rainfall set the stage for a banner nesting season east and west of I-35, but habitat conditions diminished in quality with the summer drought. Mc-Laughlin says the region made significant gains early on that were buoyed by August rain showers. Nesting and brood reports were steady throughout summer in Atascosa, Bee, Jim Hogg and McMullen Counties, with plenty of chicks spotted into July and August in Kenedy and Kleberg counties. Brood sightings continued into September, suggesting an extended nesting season.

South Texas had residual bird numbers from last year that provided a solid foundation to build on, Mc-Lauglin said. The biologist is expecting an uptick this year with a bounty of hunting opportunities across the region.

Hunting Outlook: Fair to above average.

Matt Williams is a freelance writer based in Nacogdoches. He can be reached by email, mattwillwrite4u@yahoo.com.